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In an interdependent and complex world, only few public policy challenges can be confined to one particular policy area anymore. Many governments have realized that a single-issue focus is often insufficient in dealing with emerging threats and opportunities. They have therefore started to experiment with strategic foresight that deliberately cuts across the traditional boundaries of policy areas...
Future values and wisdom in a generational sense is a challenging topic to wrestle with at an international conference, especially one which focuses on action in the present. Session Two at the 2005 WFSF World Conference in Budapest was titled ‘Counting on Each Other’, represented through the papers presented here and the group's discussion related by the author. The papers were grouped into four...
This paper is intended to give an insight of the thoughts and issues which emerged in a 2-day-workshop on WFSF World Conference in Budapest, Hungary in 2005, under the title of “Taking Care of Each Other” meaning the connection between the generation of present and that of the future. Our shocking findings were the following: we now live on the cost of the future's generation; we live up their futures;...
This article introduces future signals sense-making framework (FSSF), an alternative philosophy towards weak signals, emerging issues, drivers, and trends, that is in contrast to the traditional single signal or path extrapolation approach. The philosophy of FSSF is based on the principles of environmental scanning and pattern management, which state that if there is a grand transformation process...
Within large integrative scenario studies, it is often problematic to fully link narrative storylines and quantitative models. This paper demonstrates the potential use of a highly participatory scenario development framework that involves a mix of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods. The assumption is that the use of semi-quantitative methods will structure the participatory output,...
All forecasters face the same problems of reliability, validity and credibility. However, just improving the state of the science of trend gathering is not enough. That has to be supplemented by the state of the art of scenario, tout sheets and above all survivability solutions. The first two are more or less variations on the basic forecasting core. Not so the last. We have never been expected to...
This study presents a single-case analysis of an unsuccessful scenario planning intervention within an organization. Our analysis utilises corporate documents produced prior to a scenario-based intervention, pre-scenario-development interviews with members of the top management team, and knowledge of post-intervention events. We conclude that, even in the face of strong, orchestrated pressure for...
This paper looks at the growing confluence between sustainability thinking and futures thinking. Drawing on developments based on Integral Theory, it then looks at how an emerging Integral Sustainability (IS) promises to enhance theory and practice in the sustainability field. In particular, the paper looks at how IS makes sense of sustainability challenges from an ontological position based on perspectives...
This paper presents and further explores the issues discussed during the “New generations of futures methods” session at the WFSF 19th World Conference, Budapest, Hungary. The generational interplay has many different facets and can be looked at from many various perspectives. This paper looks at a broader role of young people as agents of cultural change in societies, their relation to futures studies...
Between 1993 and 2003, foresight activities gradually became an integral part of INRA's operation and a specific methodology was forged: the SYSPAHMM 1 1In French, SYSPAHMM: SYStème, Processus, Agrégats d’Hypothèses, Micro et Macroscénarios. foresight method. The authors describe the different stages of the method. It begins with a static graphic description of the system that will then be...
This paper points to some limitations of the narrow version of integral futures (IF) as represented in the recent special issue of Futures (2008, vol. 40, issue 2). I also propose several ways that the IF brand could be refreshed through a broader and deeper approach to integral futures by way of a scholarly engagement with other kindred discourses. The main focus of this paper is to open out beyond...
This article takes up the question of the various movements toward holism in futures inquiry. The Ken Wilber inspired integral futures, developed by Richard Slaughter and others, and put forth as the most comprehensive approach to-date, is critiqued and assessed. While Wilber's integral and the variant it has inspired in futures represent significant innovations, it also contains the tendency to un-necessarily...
The Integral framework should not be welded onto CLA. Rather, the relationship between Wilber's and Inayatullah's work should be considered liminal, open and complex. Indeed, CLA stands up independently as a core theory and methodology in Futures Studies, and is growing within a learning community. Using the vinculum approach, methods can be bolted to each other temporarily, on a case-by-case basis...
In the context of a wider discussion on ‘integral futures’ this paper reconsiders the openly integrative tendency of some moral-hermeneutic agendas. In relating a story that includes a personal failure to bring about ‘integrality’ despite having the best of intentions, a third space is opened as a way to rethink moral futures.
I take a communicative pragmatist and realist approach to futures studies. This implies a sensitivity to understanding what the audience can absorb and using futures methods effectively to create spaces for new futures. While Wilber's work affords us with new insights to engage with methodology, is not the only path. Indeed, it is intellectual bigotry to demand that everyone master the tools one personally...
In this article, the author responds to a number of claims regarding the Integral Operating System, Causal Layered Analysis and the field of Futures. In particular, the author takes aim at those who claim that the reason the futures field has been lacking in influencing change towards more positive world is the result of not having an effective tool kit. To the contrary, the author suggests that the...
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